Illustrative release scenarios · observed air quality · forecast checks
Compare possible transport and benchmark levels under the selected conditions.
October 2026 proposed rates and application source locations, plus historical comparisons. Winds are assumed; plume rise is not calculated. These are illustrative scenarios, not a forecast of local exposure. Calculation details
Choose a source case
2026 proposed application
Each case models one source at its proposed maximum rate. These are not measured emissions, approved limits or a combined facility assessment. Wind settings stay in place.
Outflow is prescribed, not generated by cooling. Inversions restrict vertical transport; plume penetration, buoyant rise and exit momentum are not calculated. Current cases start at the application’s physical tip altitude; changing injection height is a sensitivity assumption. Maximum rates are held constant. Only the first 24 hours are calculated, starting with no source contribution already in the air; this is not an established continuous-operation baseline.
Preparing the first scenario…
Trails show horizontal airflow in the selected layer, not pollutant particles. Motion is accelerated; concentration time stays fixed.
Colour bands are concentrations, not health categories. Snapshot source contribution; background pollution excluded.
Across the study area
Each row samples one reference point, not every home in that community. Select a name or any map location to inspect it. The calculation adds no background pollution; below a benchmark is not a finding of safety.
What these results can tell us about health
Air pollution can worsen coughing, wheezing and breathing difficulties. Children, older adults and people with heart or lung conditions can be more affected. Risk depends on the pollutant, concentration and how long exposure lasts. Health Canada: health effects · Who is more at risk
A benchmark flag identifies a scenario worth examining for monitoring and operating controls. It does not estimate the chance of illness. Total VOC cannot identify benzene exposure; that needs individual chemical release rates. For conditions today, use official monitoring and air-quality advice.
Model checks and source provenance
Terrain blocks transport; diagnostic winds are adjusted around and over it. This simplified flow calculation does not resolve real valley turbulence, density-driven drainage, plume heat or atmospheric chemistry. The model has not converged under grid refinement; concentration footprints can change substantially with grid size.
Reported construction-period measurements. Not attributed to flaring and not interpolated across the community.
Does the forecast reproduce local winds?
Observed · circleForecast · squareArrows point where air moves; length shows speed.
One arrow scale across all episodes.
Full episode
Airport
Pam Rocks
Mean direction error
Wind vector RMSE
Direction scores require both speeds ≥ 1 m/s. Selected episodes; no seasonal or flare validation. Different dates cannot establish a model ranking. Forecasts are not used to drive the plume map.
Evidence needed for a prediction
Input or check
Current evidence gap
Current flare source
Current proposed source rates and physical geometry recovered; event time histories and heat discrepancies remain unresolved
Local transport and inversion
Source-site hourly winds and vertical temperature/wind profiles missing
Community exposure
Breathing-height concentrations, chemistry and background not validated
Illustrative plume solver
Grid-refinement check failed; AERMOD reference tests do not validate this browser calculation